The Curious Case of Amron Ra St Brown

A deepish dive on the Lions standout wide receiver

What Amron-Ra has been doing is amazing. The question is… can he keep it going?

I’ve put together a lazy analysis of my thoughts.

Highlights

He’s clearly talented, but does anything in this crazy performance jump off the page? And this is what makes this case so curious, he’s had absurd results without

Steve Frederick @SteveFrederick_

#Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Commanders (Week 2, 2022) *12 Targets *9 Catches *116 Yards *2 Carries *68 Yards *1st player in NFL history to have 6 consecutive games with at least 8 catches and a TD. *Has tied the NFL record with at least 8 catches in 8 straight games. STUD!

This is pretty fun though…

Detroit Lions @Lions

.@amonra_stbrown just doing Amon-Ra St. Brown things! #DETvsSEA | 📺 FOX

We can’t quite make heads or tails from the games, so let’s dive into the numbers and see what the stats say.

Why Did He Fall In the Draft?

I think it’s because there is nothing dazzling about him. People don’t really get excited about 4.59 40 times. It’s the same reason watching him doesn’t quite reveal anything crazy. Great WR play is often made on the margins (see Davante Adams).

He was drafted in the 4th round by the Lions. He was the 16th receiver taken in the draft. It pains me to see him taken behind Amari Rodgers for the Packers.

Historical Comparisons

In his past 8 games, Amon-Ra put up 770 yards. In his rookie season, he put up 912 yards (17 games). The historical comps are pretty crazy, but definitely a few misses. The other thing to note (but I’m too lazy to quantify) is that many of the busts on this list were consistent throughout the year, not showing a ramping during the second half of the year. Amron-Ra did show a ramping in the second half of his year, which more aligns with the hits on this list.

What This All Means

I don’t fully buy into the whole Lions hype. They’ve got pretty good players, but what has dramatically changed since last year? I see some fun players, but not enough to convince me this team is an offensive juggernaut. I’m putting Amon-Ra in with the second tier of WRs.

In retrospect, letting Amon-Ra fall as low as he was going in drafts was probably a mistake. I got some Amon-Ra, but I have way more DJ Moore. I’m not giving up on DJ yet, but I am starting to buy in on Amon-Ra. He won’t come cheap, but I will give up quite a bit (i.e Ceedee Lamb plus Cordarrelle Patterson or something a little better). I might be buying the hype, but I see enough (in the player and the stats) that has me interested.